The consensus expects the performance of State bonds to 10 us years of 4

Fragile countries such as the Greece or the Iceland are not the only States to worry the financial markets. Just to listen to Bill Gross, head of Pimco, one of the largest Fund bond world, to convince themselves that fears are also well noted debts. It calls for vigilance and recalls that "the weavers international investment have the possibility to choose and focus on loans to State and other assets where inflation is stable and the budgetary rigour of discipline". The patron of the Fund condemns the budgetary policies pursued by the United States and the United Kingdom and j. dangerous programs not conventional adopted by the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE). "The Fed and the BoE have increased the size of their budgets to levels known as the great depression, i.e. about 20 of GDP", rebelled Bill Gross, while stressing that this ultimately inflationary pressures and reduced the margin of manoeuvre of central banks.

He referred to studies of the international monetary Fund (IMF) and the fed that show that the increase in budget deficits will eventually have an impact on interest rates. "If this trend continues, the rate will increase, in the matter, in the United States, the United Kingdom and the Japan from the Germany over the next years;" the movement could reach 100 basis points or more.

"Resistant" and "resilient".

The market has begun to integrate these differences between the States rated AAA, as evidenced by the CDS (credit default swaps"), which measure the cost of insurance against the risk of default. The risk associated with the United Kingdom debt and that of the United States has increased from the German debt. In December, Moody's also published an analysis that distinguishes in the AAA category, the best students in so-called "resistant", including the Germany and the France, a "resilient" (United Kingdom, USA).

On the bond market, the gap between the rates in 10 years of the Germany and the United States is increased recently. The differential is currently 44 basis points, while almost no early June 2009, from which the U.S. rate became higher than the German rate. "The concern about the deficit of the United States that the Germany is a factor that may play, in a period of noise around the quality of sovereign debt, acknowledges René Defossez, at Natixis." But this is not the essential catalyst in the spreads between the two countries.

The strategist, the gap is bound to elements of the business cycle: when the market anticipates a recovery, he bet on a monetary tightening more prompt addition-Atlan tick, which then justifies a U.S. borrowing rate higher. "The determinants are the expectations of monetary policy and inflation expectations," confirmed Philippe - Henri Burlisson, in Groupama AM, table on the differential increased this year (with higher US rates). Market participants expect that the Fed is the rent of money before the European Central Bank, due to a return to more early and solid growth in the United States. "In addition, the argument of the deficit is not valid looking in the years to come, where the United States and the Germany deficit-GDP ratios will converge", notes René Defossez. The consensus expects the performance of State bonds to 10 us years of 4.1 at the end of 2010.