After the nationalization of the hydrocarbons, how do you see the situation in Bolivia
The desire of rebalancing relations with the oil companies was a campaign promise to Evo Morales. What has surprised, this is the way in which the announcement was made, with occupation of some 50 of gas fields by the army and ultimatum from six months to review contracts, all of this with great propaganda. This robust method has obvious political motivations: Morales, on the one hand, facing the challenge of a part of the Indian base and left, but classes and more favoured regions also. On the other hand, it faces the very important deadline of the elections to the constituent Assembly, on 2 July.
That said, it is difficult to measure the scope of the dynamics that creates this decision, which the terms are still unclear. It is not a total takeover by the State, but the Vice-President Alvaro Garcia Linera, still left open the threat of forfeiture if the companies refused to transfer the majority of their shares to the public company YPFB.
Some fear a radicalization of legal policy, as it intends to continue the nationalizations and would even intend to return to their owners the unproductive latifundia. In addition can be questioned the capacity of the Bolivian State to redistribute more equitably the share of the oil rent it will recover, while many internal conflicts are not resolved. Finally, this decision may deter investors and damage the reputation of the country.
Can what benefits I expect
The difficulties in the international market for energy, related to operating and refining capacity increasing slower demand, place producers in a position of strength. Evo Morales initiative responds to the understandable desire to recover, with prices soaring, a part of the cake. It is the Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, which launched this movement, by increasing the taxes and royalties from companies and imposing the majority coming from the State. Since then, Ecuador did vote a law to recover 50 of extraordinary revenues from the oil from the rising prices. And the Peruvian nationalist candidate Humala has promised, if he was elected late may in the second round of the presidential elections, "to enact new rules, but modern way..."
You therefore think of a domino effect in the region, under the influence of Chavez
Yes, but it is not certain, because the Morales decision concerned also the two big countries of the zone, the Brazil and the Argentina, large buyers of Bolivian gas (25 and 5 million cubic metres per day, respectively). The price increases that wants to impose the Bolivia the impedes, not to mention the involvement of the Brazilian company Petrobras in the country. In addition, this hardening occurs in the Mercosur crisis. Presidents Lula and Kirchner will attempt, on the one hand, to preserve their own interests and, on the other hand, channeling the fervour of Chavez and Morales. It is the purpose of the meeting scheduled today Iguaçu between the Presidents of the Bolivia, the Venezuela, the Brazil and the Argentina. And I think that these two countries have arguments as clients and larger neighbors.
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