Everything is therefore based on consumption

The strength is in you... Psalms not or of des des des ou ou psaumes Non ou des des ou Bible Bible is not the 37th episode of ". An anemic economy which has in it the powerful springs. Workforce mobilization. An entrepreneurial spirit to release. And a lot of gold to spend. To activate the first two springs, need reforms in depth that the next President will perhaps lead to property. The third Forum, he seems to be more accessible. Will the French accept less save to buy more and thus support the production Today, growth also depends on the answer to this question.

Five years, the France saw a new growth plan: only consumption advances the production. If individuals had not increased their spending, the growth would have been void from 2001 to 2006. While consumption has always been the main engine of growth. But decades, she was accompanied by three other engines now fail. Public expenditure is compressed because of excessive public debt. Investment is slowly progressing because large companies install their new plants other than in France and that others do not have the means to upgrade. Export has lost its power to cause of lost competitiveness of French manufacturers.

Everything is therefore based on consumption. But to spend more, we need money. Where can he come Purchasing power rises on a slope which is improving but remains low. The companies have little means to grant generous increases, with the exception of the Giants, which are the bulk of their profits abroad. Major conferences, such as that organized Thursday at Matignon on incomes and employment, can not have significant effects on the purchasing power of the French in the short term. Remains to pick up money where there already: our bottom of wool. The share of income saved by households rose from 17 in 2002 to less than 15 this year.

The Government is doing everything to encourage these "diseconomies". When he was Finance Minister, Nicolas Sarkozy had multiplied measures: relief on donations up to 30,000 euros, unblocking anticipated reserves of participation, gift tax on the interest paid for the consumer credit... Last week, Bercy has welcomed the publication in the "Official Journal" orders for the creation of the rechargeable mortgage and mortgage life, two mechanisms that will allow the French to accept loans pledged their housing. The British and, above all, the Americans lifted hundreds of billions with these instruments.

But the French have three good reasons to become ants. First, they were so borrowed in recent years that they intend now to moderate the use of credit. This is already the case for cash loans. Their stock climbed from 6 in one year (figures of October), while he was on a slope of 8 during the first half of the year. The rise in the last quarter, expressed on an annual basis, is only 2. The slowdown will also inevitably touch housing credits, now on the rise of... 16 over a year.

Then, the money is more expensive. Short-term interest rates were already well back. In twelve months, the European Central Bank has identified its rate of 2 to 3.5, to its highest level for five years. And this is not finished. Bankers seek more to lend money in the long term, which funds the purchase of housing. Their average rate rose 3.5 at the end 2005 to 3.9 in September last. And when the money is more expensive, it reported more, which makes it more attractive investments.

Finally, the French still have reasons to worry. The hole in public finances has decreased, but there is deep (42 billion budget deficit this year EUR). Which may lead to a day or the other by tax increases to pay off the note. The Government sleight tower to display simultaneously for 2006 a persistent budget deficit and public debt declining reassures person. And the question of pensions is far from settled. A new round of negotiations is planned on the subject in 2008. Inevitably, it will revive the fear of poor pension, and therefore the willingness to put money aside for his old age.

Will the savings rise and therefore stopping the growth This is not so sure. Because the French also have three reasons to continue to play the cicadas. Firstly, they are still much money aside. For the harmonised numbers (different from the figures established by the above Insee) published by the OECD, they save more than all their neighbours: 12 of their revenues this year, against 10 in Germany, 9 in Italy, less than 5 in the United Kingdom and less than 1 in the United States. In 1991, when Edith Cresson, then Prime Minister, dealt with the Japanese to ants, their savings rate was 4 points higher than the French. Today, the Japanese rate is 9 points lower at the French rate! Secondly, the French are globally rich. Their "net heritage" is equivalent to eight years of income. And borrowing are not be as high as those of the Spanish and the British. Thirdly, the France creates jobs. However, when there is less concern unemployment, we feel less the imperative to set money aside.

The French have good reasons to continue to draw on their savings, even if they do probably more cautiously than in the past. Their wasteful hard however poses two problems that need well face a day or the other. The first is that the expenditure benefits largely to imported products. In other words, it supports the growth... our suppliers. The second is that the decline in savings often requires an increase in the loan. But the mechanics requires low interest rates. And credit growth cannot last forever.