However it is difficult to estimate today the macroeconomic impact of Basel III

It is with some relief that markets were allowed, yesterday, the new solvency ratios banks published Sunday by the Basel Committee. Most of the Bank clearly grew yesterday, from Palm including at the French Société Générale (4.30) and farm credit his (5.75). The agreement was described as "historic" by Christine Lagarde, the Minister of the economy. If the new ratio of own funds base and the financial cushion an expected level of 7, the scope of the transitional period for its implementation (between 2013 and 2018) has surprised some analysts. "The real surprise in the publication of Basel III is the exceptional generosity of the transition period," yesterday was a study of Credit Switzerland.

"It is sure that the spread of the measures in time making more manageable reform," agrees a banker. "But the strengthening of own funds which led regulation is a strong fear that inevitably will weigh on the financing of the economy, and on the volume and the cost of credit," said yesterday the French Banking Federation (FBF). A concern shared by the CGPME, judge rules "very worrying" and was ready "to joint actions with the bankers." And Laurence Parisot, President of the Medef, "decisions made by the Basel Committee may ultimately cause an ahead of the cost of the credit which penalize French companies but, moreover, not pr otégeraient not the system of new crises."

However, it is difficult to estimate today the macroeconomic impact of Basel III. The Basel Committee, the reform should be "modest" in the medium term and beneficial in the long term since to avoid a new crisis. Nout Wellink, Chairman, said yesterday that banks will need "hundreds of billions" EUR additional order to Basel III capital. Should know in fact that the "core" current Tier-1 contains a part of hybrid instruments that need gradually to reduce, not to mention the deductions to be operated (minority interests, etc.) and the future counter-cyclical cushion.

In these circumstances, the performance of the own funds of the banking sector, declined considerably since the crisis, should remain moderate for a few years. "It may even be permanently lower than that of the industry, fears a banker, making even less attractive calls to the markets of the banks. Many banks should therefore try to fulfil their supervisory obligations without resorting to fundraisers. At a Conference in New York yesterday, Frédéric Oudéa, CEO of Société Générale, has thus been confident about the ability of his group to the new prudential rules: "the entry into force of these rules being very progressive, we we landscape largely beyond the levels of capital reserves. Therefore, the Bank of defence should he able to appeal to markets to strengthen its own funds focusing on storage of profits and the distribution of "reasonable" dividend to its shareholders.

Further areas of shadow

If the uncertainty on solvency ratios is now raised, remain still two areas of shadow for banks. The issue of liquidity first: the Basel Committee should publish its new recommendations by the end of the year, for the application of a ratio in short term by 2015 and a ratio of one year by 2018. The issue of systemic institutions then. The reform of the banking sector must now tackle the problem of systemic institutions, Mario Draghi, Chairman of the financial stability Committee warned yesterday. According to him, the largest banks will be able to have a superior to others, loss absorption capacity which could pass through a reinforced supervision but also a new overload capital. A new battle in prospect for the banks.