Their average annual growth amounts to 37

Pagodas or aircraft wings, it is a question of metaphors. Since the India joined China in the disparate group of the "stars" of globalization, the two countries entered a phase of reconciliation still unthinkable ten years ago. And the official speeches compete creativity to extol their complementarity. It is the most famous Wen Jiabao, Chinese Prime Minister. Visit to the Indian temple of computing, Bangalore, he compared the giants of Asia to two pagodas which specializations equipment for one, software for the other should allow them to take a global leadership. Since then, Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Singapore, marked the spirits comparing Southeast Asia an airplane which must use for its take-off, the two wings represent those countries.

From the perspective of his official visit to India, started yesterday, the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, he concocted an image of his own called to date One thing is certain: it should continue to fuel the rhetoric of friendship and cooperation between the two pillars of the continent. Because bilateral trade boom and the complementary economic positions of the two countries to the billion people is indisputable and promising.

The tortoise and the Hare

Hu Jintao knows that another metaphor flourished, under the pen of Western editors this time: some compare the India with a turtle who "is hastening slowly", eventually taking the Chinese Hare speed on the road to economic takeoff. Indicators if the delay Indian is without appeal, the current complementarity of these two economies could quickly develop in competition.

For the moment, the smiles are genuine. Even if, on the side of Indian, "the war in 1962 left a terrible trauma", according to Christophe Jaffrelot, specialist of the India to the Centre for studies and Research International (Ceri), signs of rapprochement will abound. During the visit to Beijing to Indian Prime Minister, in 2003, the two countries started agree to resolve their border disputes through dialogue. And while the India recognized China's sovereignty over Tibet, Beijing stopped to consider the territory of Sikkim as independent of New Delhi. Before awakening in band of bilateral trade, the prospect of a free trade treaty has even been mentioned. This scenario has also been fueled by the re-opening, last July, cervical of Nathu La, which per passed, until the beginning of the 20th century, up to 80 of the goods exchanged the two countries.

Chinese and Indian leaders are pragmatic. While "taking historical parallels between their two millennia-old civilization to justify this approximation", as the note François Godement, Director of Asia Centre, an independent research centre, they know that they can no longer afford to ignore. This conviction is rooted in the Indian spirits since the beginning of economic takeoff, in 1991. "If they are released to capitalism, it's a little because the Chinese," said Christophe Jaffrelot, who recalled that the current Prime Minister, while at the controls of the economy and finance, had urged his country to open up economically taking example on the dynamism of the South Korea. "It was clever to do not target China explicitly, but the message has been understood," explains the researcher. "There is even a form of fascination of Indian employers for China," adds François Godement.

Awareness of the Middle Kingdom has proceeded more slowly. For Jean-Luc root, Director of research at CNRS, "the India has gained credibility when the Chinese found that she kept the Cape of economic openness in spite of the political changes". Not to mention that 1998 Indian nuclear test, conducted to guard against "a nuclear power of the North", expression in which China is immediately recognized, has forced Beijing to take seriously New Delhi.

Two models of development

Commercially, the relations are booming. Virtually non-existent five years ago, trade reached 18.7 billion in 2005. Their average annual growth amounts to 37.5. And forecasters expect to 40 billion dollars of trade in 2010. "The opportunity of the other becomes more significant for the two countries," explains Jean-Joseph Boillot, specialist economist of China and the India. Must specify that these bilateral exchanges are compared to the 762 billion of Chinese goods exports in 2005, and the 94 billion of Indian exports. What makes say to Thierry Apoteker, consultant specialist of large emerging economies, that "the India a lot need China that China needs the India." Moreover, if the accounting balance sheet is relatively balanced, the nature of the exchanged property is asymmetrical.

It must be recognized that the economic positions of the two countries are different.

Jean-Joseph Boillot, who has lived in one and the other a closely studied each and come to this conclusion: "Pass the analysis of China to the India, to change the software." China has very large companies, rarely far from the fold of the State, and also relies heavily on the multinationals have invested on its soil entreprise Therefore it mass production its main asset, developing a manufacturing industry which is flooding the stores around the world. With this strategy, said Jean - Joseph Boillot, "the India took what China did not make or hurt". With its myriad of SMEs, it is positioned on industries with relatively high added value and short series. And, uniquely, she almost jumped a box on the game development, from agriculture to services, not to build a strong manufacturing sector.

For the moment, even if it is simplistic to speak of a "plant of the world" to an "Office of the world", these two economies in fact appear to have little beaches of recovery. As much as for Françoise Lemoine, an economist at the center of prospective studies and international information (CEPII), these separate positions are maintained. "In the technological sectors, China invested electronics, while the India preferred computing for business, though it remains quite alone in the pharmaceutical industry", she explains.

But this division of tasks will last Nothing is less sure. Or, rather, if China and the India want to continue to generate satisfactory economic growth, they have no choice but to enter into confrontation with the other. Without that one knows when will take place this shock, or if it will be violent.

Collision in view

It is found as India poor in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America combined. The strength of the country in high-technology tends to obscure this reality, by a sort of "magnifying glass"effect, according to economist Delphine Cavalier, in charge of the India in BNP Paribas. But, she adds, it is good to remember that, if the services represent half of economic activity, "the high-tech has a very low weight", between 1 and 3 of GDP, according to estimates. Believe a specialist economist of the India installed in New Delhi, "the employment situation is indeed very serious, with no net creation over a decade." The result is in the minds of leaders: the India has absolutely need to develop a workforce industry, providing employment to tens of millions of people just grow, every year, the labour force. It is in the meaning of the statement of policy made Commerce Minister Kamal Nath: it towards productive machine mass industries.

For Thierry Apoteker, things are already changing: "A look the automotive sector, seen that they have the same objectives." In a few years, the India was able to draw on its territory most of the major manufacturers. Including Renault has just announced that he would build a plant with a capacity of 300,000 with its local partner Mahindra vehicles. And the Indian Government launched a ten-year plan to increase the turnover of the sector to $ 145 billion. Thierry Apoteker is convinced: medium-term, "the collision between two exporting strategies does not doubt".

As the India is not alone in wanting to encroach on the trade of the other Fund. China, for its part, would have strong interest in developing its services if it wishes to have a healthy growth. It is the opinion of Françoise Lemoine, for which "China discovers currently all the costs incurred by its mode of growth". Energy costs, pollution and dependence on external markets: the need for rebalancing is palpable. And, as labour is still cheaper in some countries Bangladesh, Viet Nam... or India it also is obliged to get in range and increase the added value of its productions. Knowing that it "produces" more than two times more engineers than the India, is it reasonable to believe that it will permanently leave it occupy first place in the software or the pharmaceutical industry

To a Western diplomat based in India, the competition may be even harder that "the United States has no means of doubling their current account deficit." In other words, if they are indebted to acquire Chinese goods, they cannot continue indefinitely on this route to buy the productions of the Indian industry. All countries with a strong increase in manufacturing exports the will therefore partially at the expense of others, because the cake of world trade is not infinite... Or maybe we should talk about cheese, in which case the fable of la Fontaine the most appropriate would be the Crow and the Fox.