His students defend theses on the subject

This is called the Black Swan. The highly unlikely event... but to the disastrous consequences when it occurs. And it is unlikely, its effects are devastating because the system is built on the assumption that it will never happen (all swans are white). Popularized by American Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the financial crisis, this theory has been a new victim, Toyota. Who would think that one day Akio Toyoda, the President and CEO and grandson of the founder, should have to report the defeat mine before the press from around the world, bredouillant in bad English: "Believe me, the Toyota cars are safe..."

It was last Friday in Nagoya and, on that day, the sky fell on the head of the 300,000 employees of the first global automobile manufacturer and its millions of partners around the world. Continuous considerable power, the first company of the Japan, built entirely on the idea of excellence manufacturing and its improvement. Toyota is a God, as this nation, obsessed of perfection, as worshipped for centuries. A point that commentators suggest now, in the case of Toyota, the symbol of the decline of a country.

That is wrong In fact, two events a priori distinct and remote in time. The first was held last may, when the Group announced a colossal loss of 3.3 billion. The second, in recent weeks, when the company found itself entangled in accusations of failure on the accelerator pedal, then brake, the leading order recall more of 8 million cars in the world, leading to the Act of contrition television of Akio Toyoda.

The question is, of course whether these two events have a link between them.

Diving in the Red of the world champion has highlighted its two major weaknesses: its high dependence on Japanese and American markets concentrated two-thirds of its sales and three quarters of its profits, and its relative weakness in emerging countries. Result, when its sales have collapsed last year (fiscal year 2008-2009) of 20 in the Japan and 34 in the United States, Europe or the emerging countries have taken over. In Europe, its market share is the lowest since 2005 and, in the Brazil and China, it is widely outpaced by its competitors, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and even Fiat (at Brazil) or General Motors (in China). Clearly, the Group has a marketing problem, with models not sufficiently adapted to local markets, in any case insufficiently attractive, especially to the steamroller Volkswagen with its brands, luxury small prices, not to mention its models specific to the Chinese market. Attacked on the prize by Korean Hyundai and the variety by German, Toyota appears trapped in the "mid", which also threatens other generalists such as PSA and Renault.

The question of quality. A look more closely, the phenomenon is not a month. In 2005, the firm said, for quality reasons, more than 2.3 million cars in the United States, more than its sales of the time in that country. In 2006, it is another model who suffers the same fate. At such point as the CEO of the time, Katsuaki Watanabe, ordered a reinforcement of controls and launches Customer First program. However, since this date, the reputation of the firm is eroding American consumers tests. A disaster for a company whose main selling point is not the seduction of his models, driving pleasure, but the reliability.

Toyota men are not only to mourn the end of an exception. Millions of activists of the Toyota Production System in the world are collapsed. This concept developed in twenty years by Toyota engineers is the greatest revolution in industrial management from Fordism. Unlike the latter, he advocates the autonomy of the operators, the obsession of the quality of the product and its continuous improvement and work without stock in tense stream. All global industry, and not only the car, went on a pilgrimage to Toyota City to draw the precepts of the awesome Taiichi Ohno, the House engineer that has shaped and popularized the toyotisme.

And, in the opinion of all aficionados of the "kaizen" (continuous improvement) and the "lean production" (lean production), "Toyota is still widely in advance in this area and all manufacturers seek to copy its model," confirms Daniel Marco, head of the company of Council Geolean. The American scholar Jeffrey Liker has written 6 books on Toyota and prepares a seventh. His students defend theses on the subject. For him also, the woes of Toyota are nonsense while the company, in contrast to its competitors, does not terminates its employees and maintains long term relationships with its suppliers. And, as confirmed by a report by the Boston Consulting Group (1), Toyota remains the absolute model in this area.

Then, bad trial In fact, three "defects" incriminated, the hassle concerning Accelerator pedals, dating not correctly. A model is in question, built by the American company CTS, an electronic equipment manufacturer with 15 factories in the world. The small specialized blog The Truth About Cars (2) malignant have dismantled two OEMs, the CTS U.S. and Japanese Denso pedals. They are the same vehicles, but their design is completely different. However Toyota fully control the design of its parts. However, he grows permanently its subcontractors to seek more cost-effective solutions while preserving quality. In 2005, the firm has launched a program in the direction of its suppliers to reduce the cost of the parts of 30 in three years.

All manufacturers are thus and are faced with the same puzzle: reduce costs, increase reliability. A risky arbitration. As the shortening of the deadlines of design, including the disappearance of many stages of model and prototype with digital reached the chain.

Toyota, which is the more prudent automakers, probably made the poor arbitration. It is not exceptional. Ford made of very large recalls cars last year. But when it built its image quality, it suggests that the Black Swan may exist (indeed there are in Australia...). Especially when it moves in foreign land, the United States, currently sensitive to nationalist rhetoric.

Toyota faces three challenges. The product, of course, and its consistency with the needs (or dreams) of the consumer, as was the case with the car hybrid in the US, but less in other markets. One of the service, then, out of the culture of the engineer of his and manage the disastrous media implications of this case. And, finally, that of the management to put all this music and out the company of its Tower ivory and the form of arrogance that could characterize his years of successful expansion.

The company believes that Akio Toyoda is the man for the job because it marks the return to family sources. But in the current context, what is missing, it is rather a human Angel, capable of thinking outside the traditional consensus very powerful to the Japan. As was the case with the rescue of Nissan by Carlos Ghosn. A metaphor for the challenges of the Japan of today.